This website brings together publicly available documents, official modelling outputs, and government statements to explain the impacts of the West Gate Tunnel Project (WGTP) on North and West Melbourne. Every statement on this site is supported by a published source, an official government webpage, or a clearly identified modelling output. Where interpretation is required, the underlying evidence is cited.
Since starting this research it appears that DTP, WGTP and CoM have archived materials relating to approval and planning that was previously publicly available. Whatever files I have been down loaded are available on the download page.
1. Impacts on North and West Melbourne were identified in 2017
The impacts of the WGTP on North and West Melbourne were formally identified in the West Gate Tunnel Project Environment Effects Statement (EES) published in 2017. The EES concluded that traffic volumes would increase in these areas and that key east–west streets at the northern edge of the CBD would operate at or near capacity for extended periods (often cited as 12–14 hours per day).¹ These findings were central to the project’s assessment and approval, not incidental.
The Minister for Planning’s Assessment, issued in November 2017 by Richard Wynne, explicitly acknowledged these impacts, stating that the project was predicted to increase traffic on streets in North and West Melbourne, and required that further transport investigations be undertaken to inform mitigation before construction was completed.²
2. Traffic modelling continued after project approval
Traffic modelling for North and West Melbourne did not stop in 2017. The Minister’s Assessment explicitly required further transport investigations, recognising that traffic impacts and mitigation would need to be refined as the project progressed.³
In 2025, updated traffic modelling was completed by the Department of Transport and Planning (DTP) to inform the Transport Amenity Program (TAP). This is confirmed by material published by the City of Melbourne, which states that “the last traffic modelling was conducted in 2025,” with a baseline traffic survey undertaken in November 2025 to ensure current conditions were captured.⁴ The separation of modelling and baseline surveying confirms that modelling was completed prior to November 2025.
3. What the 2025 TAP modelling shows
The outcomes of the 2025 modelling are visible in DTP’s published TAP traffic modelling maps, which present total daily vehicle volumes for:
- a baseline scenario (excluding WGTP), and
- a projected scenario (including WGTP).⁵
Comparison of these scenarios shows that WGTP does not remove traffic from the inner-north network but redistributes it, with:
- increased volumes on some streets (notably Victoria Street), and
- persistently high volumes on others (including Queensberry and Arden Streets), even where some strategic corridors experience reductions. These outcomes align with the redistribution effects identified in the 2017 EES.¹
4. Why we refer to “near-capacity” conditions
References to streets operating at or near capacity are based on two sources of evidence:
- the 2017 EES screenline and corridor analysis, which explicitly identified prolonged near-capacity operation across east–west streets in North and West Melbourne;¹ and
- the very high daily traffic volumes shown in the 2025 TAP modelling, which for signalised urban streets indicate limited residual capacity and high sensitivity to disruption, even where precise capacity ratios are not publicly released.⁵
While street-by-street capacity ratios and level-of-service metrics have not been published, the available evidence supports the conclusion that congestion in these areas is structural rather than temporary.
5. Mitigation measures and their effects
Mitigation measures introduced through the TAP—including turning restrictions, lane reallocations, signal changes, and traffic calming—are intended to protect local amenity and discourage rat-running.⁶ However, in a network already operating close to capacity, these measures also reduce effective road capacity and concentrate delay at specific intersections, reshaping rather than eliminating congestion. This interaction between mitigation and redistributed WGTP traffic is evident in both the 2017 and 2025 modelling evidence.¹⁵
6. What has and has not been released
Publicly available material confirms that:
- impacts on North and West Melbourne were identified and accepted in 2017;¹²
- further modelling was undertaken and completed in 2025;⁴
- that modelling informed interim TAP measures.⁵⁶
What has not been publicly released includes:
- segment-level modelling datasets,
- capacity or level-of-service metrics,
- full before-and-after modelling reports for North and West Melbourne.
This website therefore distinguishes carefully between documented facts and reasonable interpretation of disclosed modelling outputs.
Downloadable sources
The following primary sources underpin all analysis on this site and are available publicly:
- West Gate Tunnel Project – Environment Effects Statement (2017) Victorian Government / Planning Victoria https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environment-assessment/browse-projects/projects/west-gate-tunnel-project
- Minister for Planning’s Assessment of the West Gate Tunnel Project EES (November 2017) Victorian Government https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environment-assessment/browse-projects/projects/west-gate-tunnel-project
- City of Melbourne – North & West Melbourne Projects / TAP updates City of Melbourne https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/north-west-melbourne-projects
- Transport Amenity Program (TAP) traffic modelling maps (2025) Department of Transport and Planning Published as part of TAP documentation and community materialhttps://transport.vic.gov.au/news-and-resources/projects/transport-amenity-program#h2-vh7b6
- City of Melbourne submissions to the WGTP EES Inquiry and Advisory Committee (2016–2017) City of Melbourne (archival inquiry material)https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/west-gate-tunnelhttps://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/meeting/future-melbourne-committee-05-july-2017
Since starting this research it appears that DTP, WGTP and CoM have archived materials relating to approval and planning that were previously publicly available. Whatever files have been down loaded are available on the download page.
Footnotes
¹ West Gate Tunnel Project Environment Effects Statement (2017), Traffic and Transport Assessment ² Minister for Planning’s Assessment of the West Gate Tunnel Project EES, November 2017 ³ Minister for Planning’s Assessment, requirement for further transport investigations ⁴ City of Melbourne TAP website and post–20 November 2025 meeting material ⁵ Department of Transport and Planning, Transport Amenity Program traffic modelling maps (2025) ⁶ City of Melbourne Transport Amenity Program project descriptions and interim works documentation
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